2006		2007		2008		2009		2010		2011		2012		2013		2014		2015-2023

Usually I would ramble endlessly about how flippin brilliant I am when given the opportunity, but not here. Pure luck. Hell, I am happy that the only one-half of a game that I watched this year was the Ravens having their way with the Patriots two weeks ago. If I had watched the 'Niners and that freshman quarterback of theirs come back against Atlanta I would have probably gone with them. That's right, my direct observations boiled down to the last half of a game before the Super Bowl.

Anywho- I would like to thank Team Chorizo for introducing me to the league and to Judson for correcting the Commish's attempt to sandbag my ability to enter picks a few weeks ago. To the Commish's well timed (i.e. at Halftime) call informing me that it is customary to give the commish a tip, here it is- you would look good with a fu manchu stash. Otherwise, you make babies cry (or at least mine- you are such a Kerr).

Oh and you heard it here first- Niners win the next one.

In case you missed it during the Super Bowl, Bill "I'm trying to make sure that nobody ever hires me as a head coach again" Cowher suggested at halftime that the 49ers would be better off with Alex Smith at quarterback for the second half. He honestly believed that Smith gave the 49ers a better chance to come back from their deficit. Upon hearing his statements, I immediately pinched myself to make sure I wasn't dreaming. Then I called Judson (a huge Steelers fan and Cowher apologist) and complained to him. The phone conversation eventually turned itself into an email chain. I put way too much time and effort into my side of the argument, as you'll see in a second...but I figure that if I post my argument research here it would make my effort seem a little more worthwhile. So here you go...

Kaepernick is a superior quarterback to Alex Smith. Please look at the above chart. Please note that the above stats only include the regular season. We'll get into the playoffs later. By looking at the regular season, though...we're comparing similar ranges of data. I'm trying to make the fairest argument I can.

First off, both quarterbacks had an equal number of regular season passing attempts (218), which is great for analytical purposes.

Looking at a pretty standard stat that rates a quarterback's efficiency, let's glance at yards/attempt.

Kaepernick is at 8.3, Smith is 8.0. Without even including rushing yards, it appears that Kaepernick is getting better results out of the offense. But let's look at the whole picture, because passing plays can have three true results: a throw, a rush or a sack.* One needs to look at all of them in order to get a true judge of a quarterback's value.

Kaepernick rushed 63 times for 415 yards. Smith can run a little, too. He had 31 rushes for 132 yards. Again, though, the nod goes to Kaepernick here.

Completing the entirety of possibilities when it comes to passing plays, we look at sacks. Smith was sacked more often (one would imagine due to his lesser mobility). He was sacked 24 times for 137 yards. Kaepernick was sacked 16 times for 112 yards.

So add all the passes, rushes and sacks and you get a total picture.

Smith threw the ball 218 times, ran it 31 times and was sacked 24 times. That's 273 plays where he's the one responsible for creating offense. In those plays, the offense totaled 1,732 yards. That's an average of 6.3 yards per attempt for Smith. He also had 8 turnovers (3 fumbles and 5 picks) and 13 touchdowns. That's a 1.6:1 TD/Turnover ratio.

Kaepernick threw the ball 218 times, ran it 63 times and was sacked 16 times. That's 297 passing plays where he's the one responsible for creating offense. In those plays, the offense totaled 2,117 yards, or an average of 7.1 yards per attempt for Kaepernick. He also had only 5 turnovers (2 fumbles and 3 picks) to go with his 15 touchdowns. That's a 3:1 TD/Turnover ratio.

So when you look at the total picture, Kaepernick is giving you nearly an extra yard of offense PER PLAY. That's pretty significant. Additionally, it can be assumed that Kaepernick's higher number of plays run is a direct result of the additional yards he's providing by prolonging drives. That's not a minor detail, not only does your chance of scoring increase the longer you have the ball, it also allows the defense to rest more. Also, Kaepernick has a TD/Turnover ratio nearly twice as high as Smith. I'm not seeing how any argument can be made towards Smith.

A final regular-season argument because I'm on a roll...I don't see how you're writing off an additional field goal's worth of points each game as something that's negligible. An extra 3 points is huge! That's the difference between winning and losing in a lot of cases. The 26 points per game that the 49ers scored with Kaepernick at the helm would rank 7th in the NFL if played over a whole season. The 23.5 points per game that they scored under Smith would rank 14th. Again, it's a big deal.

One more thing before I drop my microphone and walk off the stage in triumph...

Let's look at the playoffs for a second, because that's the real reason that Harbaugh replaced quarterbacks. He knew that they were already going to win the division with either player at the helm. He saw the ceiling of Kaepernick and took a risk by putting him under center with the hope that he could lead the team to the Super Bowl. Harbaugh's risk paid off...Kaepernick pushed the team further this season than they made it with Smith last year with essentially the same roster. But let's look at those stats...

He averaged nearly 10 yards per pass. Pretty ridiculous. He also rushed 25 times for 264 yards while, oh yeah...setting the all-time record for most rushing yards for a quarterback in a game. In all, he went back to pass 110 times (he was sacked 5 times) and accounted for 1027 yards. That's 9.3 yards per play with 7 TDs and 2 turnovers for Kaepernick in the playoffs, against the best competition. That absolutely dwarfs Smith's 6.3 yards per passing play this season.

Looking at all those stats, it seems obvious to me that Kaepernick represents a significant upgrade over Alex Smith. Kaepernick better in every category except completion percentage, but even that lead is negated by Smith's low average yards per attempt. Smith is throwing safer, shorter passes. On the positive side of things, Smith will get an opportunity to try to prove you right next year after he gets cut by the 49ers in a couple weeks.

* I've been notified that I am incorrect on this number. There are actually four true outcomes when a quarterback goes back to pass. I forgot "Butt Fumble". I apologize for my lack of attention to detail.

Anquan Boldin is an absolute beast. Some of those catches that he made tonight were ridiculous. Also, Joe Flacco finally ended this summer's debate about whether he's an elite quarterback. It's great to see a member of my University of Delaware brethren win a Super Bowl. Thanks for nothing, Rich Gannon.

Congratulations to your 2012-13 JRA Football Champion, honeybadgerforheisman12. The Ravens' victory tonight caps off an incredible run for honeybadger. Barely over a month ago, he was sitting in 32nd place with less than 10,000 points. Right now he's sitting on top of the world. Or at least on top of a pile of $1,300.

As for the league as a whole, we sided with the correct result of the game tonight. More people put more money on Baltimore, so congratulations to us for being smarter than Vegas in this particular instance. Here are the details on our betting...

Some other things of note...

Honeybadgerforheisman12 set the all-time record for betting percentage in a season with 63.92%, beating FancyPants' previous mark in 2008 by a fraction....Druzer didn't finish in the money, but did have the highest betting percentage of anyone in the playoffs. He correctly picked 9 of the 11 playoffs games.

As in JRA Football tradition, our winner will be posting a post-victory blurb in the next day or two. Then we'll enter the dreaded offseason. I'll talk to you all again sometime in late July or early August with an invitation to next year's league.

Update: If you finished in the money, please email me your mailing address so that I can send along your winnings.